But for the time being, the data does not justify substantially more confidence than that. e: specifically percentage forecasts. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. Create a commenting name to join the debate, There are no Independent Premium comments yet - be the first to add your thoughts, There are no comments yet - be the first to add your thoughts. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. In 2020, there aren't as many undecideds, Biden is simply more likeable (don't underestimate that factor) and anti-Trumpers are motivated. He leads … vote. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll. Schauen Sie sich unsere Galerie über Wetterfotos aus der ganzen Welt an, die von Besuchern geschossen wurden. One electoral vote # The winding path to 270 electoral votes. 80. Nate Silver, the renowned pollster who has seriously talked up the chances of Donald Trump winning today's election, has released his final forecast. As he had done in the 2008-2014 elections, Silver set out to predict first the outcome 2016 Republican Presidential Primary and then the results of the Presidential race. 82% Upvoted. So to some extent, I don't care what its final forecast would have been in 2016 as long as it’s somewhere in the right vicinity between Clinton 60% and Clinton 85%. Copyright HotAir.com/Salem Media. If I were Sleepy Joe, I wouldn’t feel at all comfortable about a four-point lead in any battleground given how pollsters overlooked the strength of Trump’s working-class support last time. With the same information, 538 is currently predicting a 65 percent chance of a Clinton victory, while HuffPost’s Natalie Jackson and Adam Hooper are projecting a 98 percent chance,[1] and Sam Wang at Princeton Electoral Consortium is predicting a >99 percent chance. Biden has never topped 79 percent despite his gaudy polling leads in June and July. Models: 538 - 2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight RCP - RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps CNN 2016 Electoral Map (Interactive) NY Times The Upshot Huffington Post 270ToWin.com Results: RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls Election Results 2016 - The New York Times RealClearPolitics Ryan Grim at the Huffington Post says "Nate Silver Is … Final forecast from Nate Silver's 538 ups Clinton's chances of victory to 71%. Just like everyone on election day 538 political prognosticator Nate Silver is a bit on edge. Louis Jacobson/Governing 2016 Electoral Map. 538 give a probability weighted forecast. Are you sure you want to mark this comment as inappropriate? I assume that the big difference here is that we’re using different fundamentals-based predictions, so we’re partially pooling toward a prior of Biden getting 54% of the national vote, while their prior is something more like 52%. More specifically, Joe Biden’s lead in Pennsylvania — the most likely tipping-point state, according to our forecast — is solid but not spectacular: about 5 points in our polling average . Clinton's chances. I assume that the big difference here is that we’re using different fundamentals-based predictions, so we’re partially pooling toward a prior of Biden getting 54% of the national vote, while their prior is something more like 52%. Win chance Elec. Our model thinks there’s a 19 percent chance that Biden will win Alaska, for example, and a 13 percent chance that he will win South Carolina. Prev. But the election’s not being held today, is it? 538's 2016 prediction. Weird and not-so-weird possibilities. Aug 02, 2016 6:34 PM. To create a 2020 map, visit the home page or begin editing below. In 2016, our final forecast said Trump had a 29 percent chance, and that came through; right now we give him a 12 percent chance to win in November. Just like everyone on election day 538 political prognosticator Nate Silver is a bit on edge. They gave trump 30% chance while acknowledging their forecast had a lot of uncertainty. Please be respectful when making a comment and adhere to our Community Guidelines. FiveThirtyEight hit its first major data gaff in the 2016 elections, proving that creating statistical models behind closed doors does not necessarily lead to the best outcome. Go. The site’s final forecast in 2016 gave Hillary a 71.4 percent chance of winning versus a 28.6 percent chance for Trump, which turned out to be good enough for 300+ electoral votes. Thread starter platocplx; Start date Sep 28, 2020; Forums. Coincidentally, these are the exact same odds as in our final forecast in 2016!!! But it’s also too soon to count out a scenario in which Biden blows the roof off: It’s important to remember that the uncertainty in our forecast runs in both directions. Filed under 2016 Election. W Many feel that way considering how much it screwed up its elections forecasts. Models: 538 - 2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight RCP - RealClearPolitics - 2016 Election Maps CNN 2016 Electoral Map (Interactive) NY Times The Upshot Huffington Post 270ToWin.com Results: RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Video and Polls Election Results 2016 - The New York Times RealClearPolitics Ryan Grim at the Huffington Post says "Nate Silver Is … It wouldn’t surprise me if Biden finally slips below that 69 percent floor he’s had in FiveThirtyEight’s model over the next week. FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 12, 2020. When 538's presidential election forecast is released, will the chance of a Trump victory be higher than that given by the forecast from The Economist at that time? Here's a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate's chance of winning it. Comparing the two forecasts. Nov. 11, 2016, at 4:09 PM. i'm curious where nate had obama in those races compared to now. In 2016, FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote but missed with its Electoral College forecast. Over at 538 (another recent bragging point for Trump fans. By Charlie Nash Sep 18th, 2020, 10:41 am . Go. Note: The 538 model shown is its default (polls-only) forecast. Response to Norbert (Original post) Tue Oct 27, 2020, 10:35 … Releasing his final forecast, Silver noted that there was a gap between the Electoral College and the national vote, with Ms Clinton 81 per cent likely to get the overall majority of votes in the latter. Interestingly, if you compare FiveThirtyEight’s 2016 model to the new one you’ll find that Hillary’s odds of winning over the course of the campaign surged higher than Biden’s ever have. Is it a change in the model, or more steady public opinion, or both? Want an ad-free experience?Subscribe to Independent Premium. Due to the sheer scale of this comment community, we are not able to give each post the same level of attention, but we have preserved this area in the interests of open debate. JUST IN: FiveThirtyEight Now Forecasts Democrats Will Win Control of Senate. Facebook; Twitter; Email; … As the election gets closer — and as we get swamped with new polls — the forecast will get less uncertain. I’ll let you guys look at the sites yourselves rather than try to summarize. The most insightful comments on all subjects will be published daily in dedicated articles. 6 comments. You can find our Community Guidelines in full here. 538 has been all over the map this election. Hillary Clinton has been the favourite to win throughout the campaign, but the polls have tightened up to Election Day, {{#verifyErrors}} {{message}} {{/verifyErrors}} {{^verifyErrors}} {{message}} {{/verifyErrors}}, Last forecast from Nate Silver ups Clinton's chances of winning to 71%, Hillary Clinton says voting for herself was 'most humbling feeling', Hillary Clinton on course for victory due to soaring Hispanic turnout, Trump could start a nuclear war, says former GOP senator, You may not agree with our views, or other users’, but please respond to them respectfully, Swearing, personal abuse, racism, sexism, homophobia and other discriminatory or inciteful language is not acceptable, Do not impersonate other users or reveal private information about third parties, We reserve the right to delete inappropriate posts and ban offending users without notification. Note: The 538 model shown is its default (polls-only) forecast. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. Neue Fotos werden der Galerie ständig hinzugefügt. As in 2016, Trump could potentially benefit from the Electoral College. Coincidentally, these are the exact same odds as in our final forecast in 2016!!! The 29 percent shot he enjoys right now isn’t really driven by the polls: Although the race has tightened a bit in the past few weeks, Biden still enjoys a national lead in the six- to seven-point range, which has the makings of a comfortable win. Read our full mailing list consent terms here. All Rights Reserved. Historical (pre-2016) 538 Forecasts? this might be a long shot, but do y'all know how to access old NYT 538 forecasts from 2008 and 2012? That’s a paradox of this election thus far: As insane as the uncertainty of day-to-day life has been, that uncertainty isn’t showing up in the election. 70. Projected margins in the tipping-point states are considerably tighter than the margins in the national popular vote. There’s also the fact that Americans are still able to pay their bills — for the moment — thanks to federal assistance, although now that that’s momentarily dried up, it’s another source of uncertainty. The model also gives Biden a 30 percent chance of a double-digit win in the popular vote, which would be the first time that happened since 1984…. Historical (pre-2016) 538 Forecasts? Our journalists will try to respond by joining the threads when they can to create a true meeting of independent Premium. i'm curious where nate had obama in those races compared to now. # It’s all about the 538 Electoral College votes. Silver has justified giving Mr Trump such high chances in the past on the basis that, with the polls all pretty tight, many different scenarios remain possible. Follow @TheFix on Twitter for their latest commentary and analysis of the 2016 elections. Key. Nate Silver often stresses that he gave Trump a better than one in four chance of victory four years ago because so many other forecasters put Clinton’s odds ludicrously high, in some cases at 99 percent despite how the polls tightened in swing states over the final two weeks. And his chances will improve in our model if he maintains his current lead. Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? There’s the chance that Trump could come back — but there’s also the chance that things could get really out of hand for him. And opinions about the president tend to be baked in, not something that people are still sussing out three and a half years into his term. 538 polls 6 weeks out. At this point in the race, hundreds of polls have been conducted, and the vast, vast majority of them show Hillary Clinton winning nationally and in enough states to win the presidency. Chance of winning Electoral votes Popular vote. share. The Babylon Bee NAILS the Biden-Media Love Affair and It Couldn't Be More LOL Perfect, 'It needs to be destroyed': The Vatican unveils its Sumerian-influenced sci-fi nativity scene. In the case that multiple forecasts are released by 538, the model considering the most information is chosen for this question. Tweet; Share; Comment; Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times’ the Upshot offer two different sets of numbers. Terrible article. But maybe that’s about to change as the campaign grows more active and Biden becomes more visible? According to 538's Current Election Forecast As of Sept 28th, If Trump Loses PA. His Chances of Winning are essentially over. Response to Norbert (Original post) Tue Oct 27, 2020, 10:35 … Follow @TheFix on Twitter for their latest commentary and analysis of the 2016 elections. Click the buttons to see the ways each candidate’s outlook has changed over time. report. Trump's chances. Reader mode. Threadmarks. So to some extent, I don't care what its final forecast would have been in 2016 as long as it’s somewhere in the right vicinity between Clinton 60% and Clinton 85%. The existing Open Comments threads will continue to exist for those who do not subscribe to Independent Premium. On Tuesday morning the Action Network’s Darren Rovell tweeted out the final Five Thirty-Eight forecast for both the 2016 election and the 2020 election and pointed out how “they were wrong” four years ago. He leads … Here is the latest forecast for Hillary vs. Trump: An eighty percent chance at this point Hillary wins. Nate Silver Predicts a Close 2016 Presidential Race Election forecaster Nate Silver provides his 2016 predictions. The Fivethirtyeight forecast gives Biden a 72% chance of winning the electoral vote, a bit less than the 89% coming from our model at the Economist.. The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. The 2016 Senate Forecast August 29th, 2016, 12:00pm by Sam Wang . Trump’s also an incumbent, of course, which improves a candidate’s chances, and he polls better in swing states than he does nationally, which, per FiveThirtyEight, gives him about a 10 percent chance of once again losing the popular vote while winning the electoral college. 1 … Go to page. And in a year like 2020, when anything seems possible, we should allow for the chance that the country will endure another major shock or two, or 12, before November 3 that might reorient the race in Trump’s favor. coll. HuffPost Pollster was giving Ms Clinton a 98 per cent chance of winning, while The New York Times’ model at The Upshot had her at 85 per cent. On the morning of Nov. 5, 2016, I went to Hillary Clinton’s campaign headquarters in Scranton, Pa. — home town of Joe Biden (who was holding … A colleague pointed me to Nate Silver’s election forecast; see here and here:. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2016 election forecast. Recent threadmarks Important note to his … Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. 538 is currently forecasting a 68% chance that Democrats will gain enough seats to control the Senate in this election cycle — with the most likely result being a net pickup of 4 seats. e: specifically percentage forecasts. The Economist and Fivethirtheight forecasts differ in their point predictions for Florida. Biden, by contrast, has been rock-steady since June 1, never dipping below 69 percent. The model relies on Biden’s consistent lead in both national and battleground polls, according to FiveThirtyEight. Anonymous wrote:In 2016, 538 had Clinton winning at about a 72% chance (thus, Trump had a 28% chance). Those hubristic estimates gave data sites a bad name. Start your Independent Premium subscription today. November 6, 2016, 3:48 PM • 3 min read. To get a sense of the historical performance of each data source, I gathered data from the previous 2016–2017 NFL season. Why FiveThirtyEight Gave Trump A Better Chance Than Almost Anyone Else By Nate Silver. If he wins a second term, odds are it’ll be by the skin of his teeth. FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. And to get a sense of how imp… With Ms Clinton only a 65 per cent favourite, that was seen as an outlier compared to other models. By MARGARET CHADBOURN. 90. Independent Premium Comments can be posted by members of our membership scheme, Independent Premium. Exit question: Will he get a bounce from choosing Harris? 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